In what could be devastating for the entire south asian region, sources from secret intelligence services have stated that Myanmar (Burma) is close to testing a nuclear bomb in the next few years with the help of North Korea.
Analysis of how this impacts India:
India, which shares its border in the north east with Myanmar, just cant afford this to happen, as if it does happen, India would be surrounded by 3 Nuclear powered states, China in the north, Pakistan in the west, and Myanmar to the east.
To add more, India has always had turbulent relationships with Myanmar since the slaughter of democracy in Myanmar by the 'military junta' which came in power 1962. India has also provided great support and succour to the pro-democratic activists in Myanmar, including to the noble prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi, who is under military arrest in Myanmar now. All this has only made the military rulers of Myanmar vary of India.
And the worst is, China, Pakistan & Myanmar have been close allies, especially China & Myanmar, which share not only cultural relations, but also robust trade and defense relations. After most of the western nations banned sales of arms to Myanmar in late 1980's, China strategically grew its influence in the country increasing the threat to India and the entire south east asian region. India, though could not afford to spoil its relations any further with Myanmar, as it had the risk of increasing insurgency from Myanmar to the already volatile North Eastern states and also to curb the drug trafficking in that area. In the recent past though, India has gone against its ethos and supported the military government by supplying high tech helicopters and support for naval and airforce upgradation. But still, relations of India & Myanmar are not on a strong foot holding as they are between China & Myanmar.
Finally, to add some more fuel to fire, reports have been saying that two Pakistani scientists, from the AQ Khan stable, had been dispatched to Myanmar where they had settled down, to help Myanmar's nuclear project. China and Pakistan being the closest of friends, surely have kept no reason left for India to stand up and take notice of Myanmar's dangerous games.
No wonder, India was in such hurry to have a nuclear triad capability. For all those wondering what a Nuclear Triad means, let me quote wikipedia for a simple understanding.
" A nuclear triad refers to a nuclear arsenal which consists of three components. The purpose of having a trifurcated nuclear capability is to significantly reduce the possibility that an enemy could destroy all of a country's nuclear forces in a first strike attack; this, in turn, ensures a credible threat of a second strike, and thus increases a nation's nuclear deterrence. "
To put it in a much simpler way, a country having the capability to strike nuclear bombs from land, air, and water, hence creating the triad.
After the recent launch of the top secret nuclear powered submarine by India, it has come closer to the Nuclear Triad capability, which is only with the USA & Russia at present. After the induction of this submarine in the Navy, India would be amongst the TOP 3 most powerful nations of the world nuclear capability & deterrence wise. The exact or approximate number of nuclear bombs in India's arsenal has been a mystery and a well kept secret.
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Sidharth Mehta
Dubai, UAE
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